LaRouche's "Nine Forecasts"
Back to LaRouche as "World' s best forecaster" (ever)?
|About my qualifications: I have introduced relatively few forecasts of critical events during my 40-odd years as an economist (not counting my repetitions of some of those warnings). To date, every forecast which I have made on the basis of my LaRouche-Riemann method has been confirmed by timely developments. I now present a summary listing of those forecasts, for the purpose of identifying my authority for designing the indicated test of economic sanity.|
|1) During late autumn 1956, in connection with a marketing study, I forecast the imminence of a major U.S. economic recession, triggered by the over-stretching of a post-1954 credit-bubble centered in financing of automobiles, housing, and analogous consumer goods. This recession broke out in February 1957 statistics, and was generally, if reluctantly acknowledged to have occurred several months later. The recession-spiral lasted into mid-1958, and was followed by a prolonged stagnation until an upturn appeared under the Kennedy administration.|
These are non valid references; no exact date when it was published and where. Unverifiable.
|2) During 1959-60, I made my first long-range forecast: that near or shortly after the middle of the 1960s, we would see the first of a series of major monetary disturbances, leading toward a collapse of the existing Bretton Woods agreements. I forecast that this collapse would see increased looting of what were then termed developing sector nations, and that the breakup of the Bretton Woods agreements would lead rapidly to austerity measures modelled upon those of fascist regimes, in international economic relations and in the U.S. domestic economy.|
All of my economics forecasting and related activities of the 1960s, through spring 1971, were premised upon that same judgment. The first of the series of major monetary disturbances of the period occurred with the collapse of the British pound during November 1967, followed by the dollar crisis of January-March 1968. The break-up of the Bretton Woods agreements occurred beginning Aug. 15, 1971, and was consolidated by the Azores monetary conference of 1972. In immediate response to the August 1971 development, the U.S. government instituted the radical austerity measures known as Phase I and Phase II.
This is total fabrication. Here is what LaRouche
really wrote then
|3) In November 1979, during my campaign for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, I warned that the measures which the Carter administration and Federal Reserve had just taken, at the urging of newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Paul A. Volcker, would lead to the outbreak of a devastating recession, beginning early 1980. Every detailing of that forecast by EIR magazine's quarterly projections through 1983 was the most accurate forecast issued publicly by any agency; in fact, most, including Chase, Wharton, Evans, and Data Resources, were absurd in their sensing of the direction of the trends.|
We haven't found these texts. However, in June 1978 LaRouche
said "Stop the Crash of 1979
Now"... The crash didn't occur as "forecasted".
|4) In February 1983, in the course of an exploratory back-channel discussion I was conducting with Moscow in coordination with the Reagan administration, I informed the Soviet government, that if it were to reject what later became known as the Strategic Defense Initiative of March 23, 1983, the strains on the Comecon economy would lead to a collapse of that economic system in about five years. This forecast was repeated in an EIR Special Report, Global Showdown, issued July 1985. The collapse occurred during the second half of 1989.|
|5) In spring 1984, in my renewed campaign for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, I warned, in a nationwide half-hour TV address, and elsewhere, of the outbreak of a collapse in a large section of the U.S. banking system: the savings and loan and related sectors.|
We haven't found a transcript of his TV address (or else). However, in 1984 LaRouche
warned of a major financial crash
in April-July that year (which didn't occur obviously).
|6) In May 1987, I forecast, as published in EIR magazine and elsewhere, the outbreak of a major collapse in the stock market beginning approximately Oct. 10, 1987. This was my first and only stock-market forecast.|
This is a lie
! In May 1987 LaRouche in fact wrote
: "Leading European financial officials have warned my associates that we should expect to see the beginning of the world's biggest financial crash by October of this year. (...)
, but it would be, at least, a very good
After the crash occurred, LaRouche lyingly said that "he" supplied the "correct date" for the Oct. 1987 financial crash! Forget about the "leading European financial officials".
|7) During my renewed Democratic candidacy of 1988, in a nationwide half-hour TV address, I described the "bouncing ball" phenomenon as the key to following the continuing collapse of the U.S. economy through the course of apparent, short-term fluctuations relatively up or down. That has continued to the present day.|
on national television, indeed was exposing his "bouncing ball"
principle of the financial markets to compare the situation with the 1930s that led to the Great Depression.
Meanwhile, the editors of E.I.R. were publishing
these comparative charts between the 1930's and the 1980s. BUT... by mid-1988 they eventually stopped this intellectual exercise. Why? Click here
|8) During my renewed Democratic candidacy of 1992, I warned that we were already gripped by a global financial mudslide, "down, down, down."|
|This is a record of nearly 40 years, a record which cannot be even approached on the public record by any currently living economist, even by France's (and Le Figaro's) eminently sane Nobel Prize-winning Maurice Allais.|
|Out of that same unequalled competence, I say to you now, as I informed various relevant scientific institutions of Russia during the last week of this April past: The presently existing global financial and monetary system will disintegrate during the near term. The collapse might occur this spring, or summer, or next autumn; it could come next year; it will almost certainly occur during President William Clinton's first term in office; it will occur soon. That collapse into disintegration is inevitable, because it could not be stopped now by anything but the politically improbable decision by leading governments to put the relevant financial and monetary institutions into bankruptcy reorganization. That is LaRouche forecast No. 9—the addition to the list of eight, above.|
As for this "9th forecast" or all of his preceding and subsequent ones, done on a nearly yearly basis, LaRouche the forecaster was always WRONG.